How Long Will Bakhmut Stand?

Raphaël Cantin, Journalist, editor

The deadly battle of Bakhmut keeps raging, but Ukraine and Russia might run out of ammo before seeing the war’s outcome.

For a few months, the city of Bakhmut has been contested. Even with the help of soldiers from the Wagner private military group, the Russian army is still being repelled by the Ukrainians, reducing their chances to conquer the Donetsk Oblast.

An incoming counter-attack by the Ukrainians will take place “very soon,” Ukraine’s top ground forces commander announced. Right now, the Ukrainian army is trying to last as long as possible to get Russia to waste their supplies and soldiers. After that, their counter-attack, expected in spring, will have even more effect on Russia’s army, which is already doing not so great.

In the last 24 hours, 28 enemy attacks were stopped by the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut only. Over the last few days, over 60 missile strikes, air strikes and rocket salvos were launched by Russia on Bakhmut and the surrounding cities.

According to American intelligence, approximately 200 000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the beginning of the war (almost eight months), but they keep sending more to the front. In comparison, 58 000 American soldiers were killed over ten years of the Vietnam war. No information was disclosed about human losses on the Ukrainian side, but they seem to have suffered great losses as well.

Tactics used by Russia are very similar to the ones that were used during World War I. During the day, troops hide in dugouts to avoid detection. They push forward and create new trenches behind the front line at night. Some soldiers are shooters, and others dig trenches or carry ammunition. The soldiers are sometimes equipped with actual rifles, but not always. Many of them are sent to death with sticks or even nothing.“Do you see? He’s not carrying a weapon,” said Yaroslav, a civilian life filmmaker who leads a drone reconnaissance unit. “He’s a digger,” Yaroslav added.

The Donetsk Oblast, a Ukrainian region in which Bakhmut is located, is very prized by Russia. Conquering it would give them better access to the front line, making it easier to bring supplies. If Russia does not make it, the risk of them running out of ammo and food is high.